Random Musings:

Wired Coverage of the MIT "Cold Fusion" Conference

I've been attending conferences on Cold Fusion (also called Low Energy Nuclear Reactions and Lattice Assisted Nuclear Reactions) since the 10th International Conference (ICCF10) held in Cambridge, MA in 2003.

Wired online has published an article by Mark Anderson providing a very high level overview of last weekend's 2007 LANR (CF) Colloquium at MIT hosted by MIT Professor Peter Hagelstein and Dr. Mitchell Swartz of JET Thermal Products and Cold Fusion Times. I'm quoted towards the end of Anderson's article.

Blodgett on the Impact of Recession

Former Merrill .com bubble cheerleader Henry "Amazon at $400" Blodget  writes thoughtfully about the impact of a recession on advertising dependent companies such as Google and Yahoo. See his blogicle for assumptions etc. Here's his take on Google:

Google. In our "GOOD" scenario, revenue growth merely slows--to 20% a year.  (Google fans will argue that Google's growth won't slow at all because advertisers have perfect visibility into ROI, half of the business is international, etc.  There are counter-arguments to each of these points, but you can make your own assumptions).  Expense growth in this case also slows to 20%.  Google is a supertanker whose expenses are currently growing more than 65% per year, so slowing expenses this much would be very "GOOD." In any case, in this scenario, Google's margins hold and operating profits grow 20%--nice, but short of what Wall Street is probably expecting.

In our "BAD" Google scenario, revenue flattens, and the company reigns in expense growth to 10% year (heroic).  In this case, revenue stays the same, but the operating margin drops from 29% to 21% and operating profit drops by a third.  (Imagine how Wall Street will react to that).  We won't tell you about the UGLY case--you can see for yourself.

 

China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales

Writing in the Telegraph (UK), Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has an article (top o' the hat to Farbers IP list) indicating that China is threatening to engage in what some might call "economic warfare."

The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.

Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.

Saber rattling to be sure. Since we are a huge market for China, it's not clear that they would take steps that would adversely affect their own economy. China seems nothing if not pragmatic of late. Still, this news increases uncertainty all around.