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Another View OF Shell Scenario Planning: Global Climate Change

Earlier I noted Paddy Briggs' critique of Royal Dutch Shell's use of scenario planning. Writing in the Scotsman, George Kereven reports an interview with James Smith, the chief executive of Shell UK  that focused on Shell's thinking regarding what I call the Wicked Problem of Global Climate Destruction. According to Kereven, there are two paths the world could take that Shall calls  "Scramble" and "Blueprints".

Global Climate Change: Doom and Gloom?

David Flint, a UK management consultant, recently tried his hand at devising scenarios for the future of Global Climate Change. A pessimist might see his three scenarios as Dark, Darker, and Positively Darkest. Or not. Nonetheless, Flint's ideas are provocative if nothing else. Snippets:

Scenario 1: Lifeboat

In this scenario the nations do collaborate soon enough to restrain CO2 emissions and the increase is kept below two degrees.... The key assumption for this scenario is that the nations collaborate but this collaboration will not be easy. As with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) there will be disputes and we will need a World Climate Authority (WCA), analogous to the World Trade Organisation, to deal with them.

Scenario 2: Police World

In scenario 2 the nations have begun to collaborate against climate change but not in time. By 2050 the temperature rise has already exceeded two degrees and major positive feedback effects are visible.... It’s clear that the Earth cannot support its current population and that existing human institutions cannot survive the huge population movements that these changes will provoke.

Scenario 3: New Dark Age

In this final scenario attempts to international collaboration have failed to prevent temperature rises and have broken down. As the value of those cold regions in which people will be able to survive becomes clear those nations with such regions will prepare their defences. The others will attempt to negotiate access to these regions. When this fails they will resort to war.

As Bob Horn and I point out in our White Paper on Wicked Problems, thinking about alternative futures (or Endstates) is just the beginning. The much more difficult questions concern what are the key Events or milestones leading to each possible outcome, what is the most desired outcome, and who will be responsible for taking action and at least trying to influence the course of future Events. Nonetheless, Flint deserves credit for trying to untangle the climate change Mess.

Climate Change Scenario Thinking

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) is a major project initiated by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan in 2001 and completed in March, 2005. The project leveraged the contributions of 1360 experts from 95 countries, an 80-person independent board of review editors, and review comments from 850 experts and governments. The results are being published in more than a dozen reports listed on the MEA web site.

The results have also been summarized in a long PowerPoint presentation which can be downloaded from this page. Although over 6 megabytes, the larger of the three is well worth the effort. This presentation summarizes the project, findings, implications, and high level recommendations and should be required reading for anyone interested in the topic.

The project included a Scenarios Working Group whose contribution is summarized  beginning on slide 55 of the long presentation.  [Clicking on the thumbnail will produce a larger image]

 

Consistent with the view of scenarios advocated here, the MA scenarios are plausible future outcomes. The MEA scenarios will be more fully reported in one of several documents to be published this September.

Here are brief summaries of the four MEA scenarios:

Tradeoffs in Greenhouse Gas Accounting

According to an article in (Maryville, TN) The Daily Times,  Alcoa has said that by 2017 the  amount of greenhouse gasses emitted in the production of aluminum will be balanced or offset by the amount of GHGs save by using lightweight aluminum in the transportation industry. Snippets:

Global Dimming

Another consequence of the gasses that cause warming is dimming. For one discussion of dimming and its consequences, see the discussion at Global Issues.org.

How Big Oil Influenced Bush

The Guardian (UK)has a article that says, in part:

President's George Bush's decision not to sign the United States up to the Kyoto global warming treaty was partly a result of pressure from ExxonMobil, the world's most powerful oil company, and other industries, according to US State Department papers seen by the Guardian.

The documents, which emerged as Tony Blair visited the White House for discussions on climate change before next month's G8 meeting, reinforce widely-held suspicions of how close the company is to the administration and its role in helping to formulate US policy.

In briefing papers given before meetings to the US under-secretary of state, Paula Dobriansky, between 2001 and 2004, the administration is found thanking Exxon executives for the company's "active involvement" in helping to determine climate change policy, and also seeking its advice on what climate change policies the company might find acceptable.

Other papers suggest that Ms Dobriansky should sound out Exxon executives and other anti-Kyoto business groups on potential alternatives to Kyoto.

Until now Exxon has publicly maintained that it had no involvement in the US government's rejection of Kyoto. But the documents, obtained by Greenpeace under US freedom of information legislation, suggest this is not the case.

It's Not Just Eskimos in Bikinis

Check out Chip Ward's article on the EnviroHealth site on the EcoSystem consequences of climate disruption. Hmmmm. Like that phrase so much I'll incorporate it here as a replacement for climate change. Snippets:

The Terminator Terminates (sorta) GHGs

California is always the state to watch. Gov. Schwarzenegger has announced Green House Gas emission targets.

Academies call for greenhouse gas reductions

According to this AP article carried by CNN.com, The Science Academies of the G-8 countries issued a joint call for prompt action to reduce  greenhouse gases saying that further delays will prove very costly. "Lord May, president of Britain's Royal Society, said in releasing the statement that U.S. President George W. Bush's policy on climate change was "misguided" and ignored scientific evidence." Further snippets:

More on Disinformation

I suppose the disinformation campaign is relentless, as in, Scaremongers shun scientific findings of no global warming.

Apparent Media Disinformation Re Global Warming

Ross Gelbspan's Boiling Point: How Politicians, Big Oil and Coal, Journalists, and Activits Have Fueled The Climate Crisis--and What We Can Do to Avoid Disaster is noteworthy for any number of reasons, including his documentation of how interests aligned with the carbon industries have been mounting an aggressive disinformation campaign against the science documenting Global Warming. This piece by associate editor Bill Steigerwald published on Pittsburglive.com seems to be, sadly, a case in point. Snippets:

A New Business Climate For Climate?

Will self-interest, enlightened or not, lead carbon-producing companies to take innovative steps in reducing emissions contributing to Global Climate Change? That's the main point of this Scripts-Howard syndicated article published on NewJersey.com. Snippets:

California Glaciers Buck Warming Trend

According to a Science Daily article, two glaciers in Northern California's Trinity Alps seem to be holding their own.  Snippets:

Message From Plankton?

In case you missed it, UPI's Dan Whipple's weekly column on climate addresses indicators of climate change its impact on biodiversity.

Norway Aims To Be A Low Carbon Country, Uses Scenario Planning To Get There

The Environmental News Service (ENS) has an article saying that the Norwegian Government has appointed a commission whose goals include making Norway a low-carbon country. Scenario planning will be a major tool of the commission. Snippets:

Malaria, Climate Change, Scenario Planning in South Africa

A recent article in the Cape Times address the consequences of global climate change on malaria in South Africa. The SA government is employing scenario planning to consider alternative outcomes. Snippets:

U.S. Oil Gas Companies Reduce Climate Change Risk

According to the Corporate Social Responsibility Newswire Service, CSRWire, U.S. oil and gas companies have taken action to reduce global climate change risk:

After extensive negotiations with shareholders, Anadarko Petroleum, Apache, ChevronTexaco and three other leading U.S. oil and gas companies have taken far-reaching actions in recent months to disclose their potential financial exposure from climate change and develop strategies to improve their strategic positioning as international pressure grows to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote renewable energy sources.

The company actions come in the wake of record-high voting support last year for shareholder resolutions seeking more climate risk disclosure from oil and gas companies, which face growing regulatory, competitive and public pressure to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and other greenhouse gas emitting energy sources. Shareholder resolutions with Apache Corp., Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Marathon Oil Corp. all received record voting support last year, with support at Apache reaching 37 percent.