Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Bob Horn Podcast At The VizThink Blog

The VizThink blog has a great podcast with Bob Horn that addresses Wicked Problems and Visual Thinking. Fundamental themes include the integration of thinking and visualization. Maps and murals are displayed that depict various Wicked Problems, including mental health and nuclear waste. Horn also presents Argumentation Maps for Missile Defense.

Don't Miss: The Story Of Stuff

Story of Stuff is a 20 minute video with Annie Leonard that was sponsored by the Tides Foundation and the Funders Workgroup for Sustainable Production and Consumption. (Thanks to KH for pointing me to it.)

From its extraction through sale, use and disposal, all the stuff in our lives affects communities at home and abroad, yet most of this is hidden from view. The Story of Stuff is a 20-minute, fast-paced, fact-filled look at the underside of our production and consumption patterns. The Story of Stuff exposes the connections between a huge number of environmental and social issues, and calls us together to create a more sustainable and just world. It'll teach you something, it'll make you laugh, and it just may change the way you look at all the stuff in your life forever.

Among other things, the video shows how the supply chain from natural resource extraction to production, distribution, consumption and then to disposal constitutes a nasty Wicked Problem. This is one of the few videos I've seen recently that doesn't talk down to the viewer. Instead, the Story of Stuff is highly informative, entertaining, and thought-provoking.

Wicked Problem Quotes

My Google Alerts occasionally provide interesting and sometimes useful information regarding what others are thinking regarding Wicked Problems and other selected topics. Wicked Problems as involving enigmas seems to be in the collective consciousness these days.

In a blog posting on invasive species, Ioannis Petrus writes:

We push and pull at solutions and argue over definitions because invasive species are a type of wicked problem. When we try to solve the problem we find ourselves facing what should have been suspect unintended unforeseen consequences. Wicked problems have numerous intervention points, have consequences difficult to envision, and are surrounded by a dynamic uncertainty wrapped in a moving frontier of knowledge.

Perhaps this sentence echo's Winston Churchill's famous (in some quarters) quote about the Soviet Union:

Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

Regardless,  I couldn't agree more with Petrus'  characterization of  Wicked Problems.

Sandia Research On Methods To Solve Wicked Problems

Sandia National Laboratories has conducted research to determine whether Web collaborations were more or less effective than individuals working alone in resolving Wicked Problems.

The research, conducted by [George S.] Davidson, Courtney Dornburg, Susan Stevens, Stacey Hendrickson, Travis Bauer and Chris Forsythe, had some surprising results.

“In this day and age of email and the internet, our expectations were that computer-mediated group brainstorming, i.e. across the web with no face-to face contact, was going to have the best results,” Davidson says. “What we found, however, was that people working as individuals were at least as effective and possibly more so than those brainstorming in a group over the web when trying to solve ‘wicked,’ tangled problems, both in terms of quality and quantity.”

As Bob Horn and I have noted, we believe that processes for resolving Wicked Problems that entail at least some face-to-face interactions leverage collective intelligence and lead to better solutions.

New Tools For Resolving Wicked Problems - Executive Summary and Full Paper

A one page Executive Summary of our paper, New Tools For Resolving Wicked Problems, can be downloaded from here. The complete paper with references can be downloaded from here .

Re-solving, Re-evaluating, and Re-learning Wicked Problems - 19

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Taken together, the Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Mapping™ processes described here should produce clarion calls to action.  They each provide antidotes to common workshop problems, for example, brainstorming meetings that feel good, but that lack rigor, and consequently fail to produce action and results.  Or even worse, BOPSAT: a Bunch Of People Sitting Around Talking.

Instead, Mess Map and Resolution Mapping workshops are powerful tools for stakeholders to identify the complex patterns that are an essential aspect of Social Messes.  Action, and not analysis per se, is the key to resolving Wicked Problems.

As Rittel and Webber noted in their defining 1973 article, Wicked Problems are never solved, but “re-solved” for a time (Figure 17).   Action plan implementation is an ongoing process.  In time, the state of the systems that comprise a given Social Mess will change, in part because of the actions taken by stakeholders and in part because everything changes.  Change is integral for interconnected complex systems that comprise Social Messes.  To paraphrase Heraclitus, it is impossible to step into the same Mess twice.

In addition to integral change and successes resolving Wicked Problems, stakeholders change.  Co-workers come and go.  Funding appears and disappears.  New products supplant the old.  Political, social, cultural, technological, and economic contexts all change as well, usually quite independently of actions to address a given Wicked Problem. 

Workshop outputs such Common and Unique Event lists may be used as the foundation of a war room or Event Dashboard for tracking the evolution of a given set of systems and problems against the desired Endstate. 

As a result of change, organizations concerned with a given Social Mess must re-learn, re-evaluate, and re-resolve the Wicked Problem at hand (Figure 17).  The systems that comprise a Wicked Problem have evolved; the stakeholders have evolved.

If the rate of change is modest or the time period short, the previous analyses, conclusions, and key action items may just need a tune-up, so to speak.  If change has been fast or there have been perceived inflection points or discontinuities, then stakeholders may benefit from a much more substantial re-analysis.  Regardless, stakeholders need to keep reminding themselves that individual and organizational learning requires a conscious and sustained effort.

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Benefits of Resolution Mapping For Resolving Wicked Problems - 18

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Resolution Mapping does not entail predictions or forecasts.  This process also abandons the idea of a “most likely” future.  Instead, Resolution Mapping empowers participants with diverse points of view, knowledge, and experience to explore alternative futures, choose a desired outcome, and prioritize the Events necessary for resolving the Wicked Problem under consideration.

Resolution Mapping also:

• Incorporates knowledge, biases, and beliefs across diverse stakeholder groups;
• Depending on the particular Wicked Problem addressed, may take into account simultaneously international, national, state, local, or organizational issues;
• Incorporates rather than minimizes uncertainty;
• Does not seek simplistic solutions;
• Provides a basis for iterative strategic decision-making;
• Identifies key events and actions;
• Can be used to determine organizational and/or individual responsibilities;
• Can be used to set situational alarms to tell you when you’re wrong; and
• Increases the likelihood of success over the long term by being able to learn and act faster.

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Resolution Mapping Projects For Resolving Wicked Problems - 17

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Resolution Mapping™ is an ideal process for assembling, evaluating, and structuring complex information regarding a Wicked Problem.  More importantly, the various outputs lead directly to decisions regarding action items and responsibilities for those actions.

When a Mess Mapping project precedes Resolution Mapping, the Mess Map process and diagram provide significant input for Resolution Mapping while creating efficiencies.  For example, much of the data collection, interviewing, and data structuring will have already occurred. 

However, if the Resolution Mapping process has not been preceded by a Mess Mapping project, then the first step is to conduct interviews with decision makers and influencers. We try to interview all those who are likely to attend the subsequent Resolution Mapping workshop.  We also may interview industry and government experts along with other constituency stakeholders.  Our interviews are usually augmented with market, scientific, and policy information. However, we do not conduct primary research.

The sponsoring organization(s) typically identifies an engagement manager who is the point of contact for the facilitators and who aggregates feedback from participating organizations.  The facilitators review and synthesize the interviews, integrate external data, and then create draft Endstates and Events. The facilitators and sponsor representatives review all the workshop materials and agenda.

After the workshop, sponsors may follow up the Resolution Mapping workshop with one or more optional post-meeting tasks.  For example, facilitators may create a presentation that can be shared with others documenting the process, participants, and meeting outcomes.  Other post-meeting steps include working with stakeholders to further prioritize and implement key action steps.

Some clients have created a “war room” using key Events related to the desired Endstate.  New Events may be created and posted on walls or other displays together with the Events from the Workshop.  The War Room provides a summary of the desired outcome and a dashboard for monitoring the internal and external contexts. 

The War Room presentation can be reviewed with key stakeholders inside and outside the organization as an efficient way to document the meeting outcomes, to reinforce the objectives, and to maintain focus on the key Events.

In some circumstances, it is beneficial to repeat the Workshop with essentially the same materials for different audiences.  This may be especially useful when different geographic regions are affected by the same Wicked Problem.  Getting the local view may be an important step in understanding regional similarities and differences in how the Social Mess is viewed, in desirable outcomes, and in constraints on actions.

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Resolution Scenario Mapping Workshop Process For Resolving Wicked Problems - 16

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

A typical workshop usually lasting 2 and sometimes 3 days is comprised of several tasks and outputs:

1. Conventional Wisdom Voting and Scenario: participants in teams categorize the Events into “highly likely,” “highly unlikely”, and “uncertain. Facilitators use event voting to create a Conventional Wisdom scenario that reflects the overall thinking of workshop participants at the outset of the workshop.

2. Endstate Defense: Each team analyzes and then defends their assigned Endstate in a presentation to the whole group. The main purpose of the team presentation is to present a narrative describing how the world evolved, including the key actors, drivers, motives, and significant milestones along the way.

3. Endstate Systems: Workshop participants develop a new model that synthesizes the Endstates into a set of relationships indicating how the Endstates might evolve and interact with one another.

4. Policies and Specific Actions: Participants identify and prioritize key policy initiatives and Events, including responsibilities for influence or implementation.

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Wicked Problems and Endstate Systems - 15

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Endstates are useful tools for considering how to resolve a given Wicked Problem.  They do not represent forecasts or the facilitator’s opinions regarding the most likely or most desirable outcomes.

Workshop participants commonly say that the Endstate they think is really most desirable is a combination of elements from 2 or more Endstates.  Consequently, we ask participants to consider how Endstates may be related to each other, that is, to create an Endstate System. 

Each of the four diagrams in the graphic below are abstract portrayals of ideas that have emerged from this workshop exercise.  Each individual shape represents a different Endstate.

 

(A) Perhaps the Endstates might exist in parallel, but characterize different geographic regions, political alliances, markets, economic sectors, states, etc.

(B) Alternatively, workshop participants might conclude that either it will be one or another Endstate and that the others will not matter.

(C) Yet another possibility is that one of the Endstates is really key and it will dominate the others.

(D) Lastly, in this small set of examples, the relationships may change over time. Some Endstates will matter sooner while others will matter later. The bottom right example suggests that down the road there will be a major choice or fork in the road.

Endstate systems provide another, more holistic way to take into account the beliefs of workshop participants. In turn, this analysis can be the input to a set of workshop tasks concerning key events, actions, and responsibilities.

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Unique Events in Wicked Problem Scenarios - 14

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Sometimes several Events are chosen by a team defending one Endstate that are ignored in other scenarios.  We call these Unique Events.  For example, in a US and Global Climate Change workshop, a Unique Event might be that Cold Fusion Water Heaters are Commercially Available in 2013.  In a U.S. Healthcare workshop, a Unique event might be that Total Healthcare Expenditures as a percentage of GDP are constant starting in 2010.

Since only one future depends on their occurrence, adopting a strategy based substantially on Unique events may entail higher overall risk since fewer actors care about these events.  This is not to say that adopting such a strategy is necessarily a bad idea.  In many business situations, for example, higher risk may bring with it higher rewards.

However, task forces, working groups, committees and others focused on resolving a given Wicked Problem may find that alternative strategies for resolving a given Social Mess are more attainable because they are based on a greater preponderance of Common Events rather than Unique Events.

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Common Events In Wicked Problem Scenarios - 13

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Some Events are considered by Resolution Mapping workshop participants to be important to multiple scenarios.  These Common Events are noteworthy because multiple stakeholders have an interest in the outcome.

For example, in a project to address America and Global Climate Change, a Common event might be that the Congress mandates average 50 MPG for cars produced beginning 2030.  In scenarios addressing healthcare in America, a Common event might be that by 2011, 20 states mandate health insurance for all. 

Various actors may work toward making or influencing the Event to happen; others may work toward preventing its occurrence, as in the case of a Must Not Happen event.  Consequently, Common Events and the issues they represent will usually receive a lot more attention because more actors have a stake in the outcome.

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Narrative Scenarios For Resolving Wicked Problems - 12

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

After identifying those events that Must [or Must Not] happen, each team then creates a narrative: a story that describes how the world got to be “this way” rather than some other way.  They then defend their scenario in a short presentation to all the participants.

We can’t emphasize too strongly that a Scenario is not a recitation of key events: this happened, then that happened.  Rather, it’s the story that counts:

•     Who were the key actors?  
•     What were their motivations?  
•     What did they do?  
•     What didn’t they do?      
•     What was the timing of their actions?  
•     How did the actions of major actors interact with the actions of other actors?  
•     What were the key conflicts?  
•     Were they resolved or ignored?  
•     If conflicts were resolved, how?

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Must Happen Events For A Wicked Problem Scenario - 11

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Each team of 4 to 7 people works backwards:  assuming that assigned their Endstate has already happened, they determine what it took to get there.

 

Events For Scenarios Resolving Wicked Problems -10

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Events are specific observable occurrences that could happen.  For each Event, some actor or actors, such as a nation, NGO, a company, or a foundation, must be able to influence the outcome, at least in principle.  Events are printed on cards with a headline, a date, and a brief description elaborating the headline. The + or – after each date in the Events indicates that the year is approximate (plus or minus 1 year in a majority of projects).

Endstates and Resolving Wicked Problems - 9

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC)

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

All forms of scenario planning attempt to manage risk by taking into account uncertainty.  In some problem domains, the term scenarios refers to alternative forecasts, each based on a different set of assumptions.  This use is especially common in problem domains where quantitative modeling prevails: “We expect the price of oil to grow by 10% per year,” or, “We expect CO2 emissions to grow at an annual rate of 3.5% plus or minus .5%.”

Resolution Mapping Processes To Resolve Wicked Problems - 8

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

As a business tool, Scenario Planning has been evolving since Royal Dutch Shell systematized it the early 1970s.  Beginning in the mid to late 1980s, Dave Mason and Jim Herman of Northeast Consulting Resources, Inc.  (NCRI) created Future Mapping.  One of us (Weber) was a Principal at NCRI and contributed to the evolution of Future Mapping, which we call Resolution Mapping here.

Resolution Scenario Mapping Terminology - 7

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is another a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand. Have outlined the Mess Mapping process, we now turn our attention to Resolution Mapping™.

Here are a few terms with meanings specific to Resolution Mapping (equivalently Scenario Mapping). We will elaborate in subsequent installments:

• Endstate: a 1 or 2 page internally consistent description of an extreme, but plausible future of a Wicked Problem, industry, organization, market, etc. A set of 3-6 divergent Endstates that span the outcome space. The time horizon of the Endstates will depend on the Wicked Problem addressed.
• Event: a hypothetical occurrence at a specific point in the future. Events have to be observable; one has to be able to determine whether the Event has occurred or not.
• Scenario: a narrative describing the actors, drivers, motives, and key events that lead logically from the present to a particular outcome or Endstate. A Scenario answers the question, how did the world evolve from today to this specific Endstate?
• Conventional Wisdom Scenario: a scenario representing the initial beliefs of participants at the outset of a Resolution Mapping workshop process. If you want to change how people think you first have to show them how they think.
• Endstate System: A graphical or Visual Language representation of how Endstates might be related to each other, for instance, evolving over time.

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Notes:
This series of blogicles has been jointly authored; our names appear in alphabetical order.

Mess Mapping and Mess Map are trademarks of MacroVU, Inc.

Resolution Mapping is a trademark of Strategy Kinetics, LLC.

Mess Mapping Project Example Steps - 6

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is the sixth in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Mapping™ processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

A Mess Mapping™ process is organized and structured in response to the nature of the principal Wicked Problem to be addressed. Although each project is different, there are some basic consistencies across problems and consulting engagements.

What Are Mess Map Diagrams and Mess Mapping Processes? - 5

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is the fifth in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Mapping™ processes that can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

A Mess Mapping™ process is a set of structured group methods for collecting, sharing, organizing and evaluating information regarding a Wicked Problems. A Mess Map™ diagram or mural represents a common mental model of the problem at hand that shows the important “chunks” of information and their relationships with other “chunks.”

Visual Language and Wicked Problems - 4

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is the fourth in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Mapping™ processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

One of us (Horn) has been working in Visual Language for more than a decade.

Methods For Resolvoing Wicked Problems - 3

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC)

This is the third in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Mapping™ processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Organizing some form of working group—a management committee, task force, commission—is often a first step in addressing many social, organizational, and institutional problems whose essential nature is that of a Wicked Problem (equivalently, Social Mess).

Wicked Problems - Social Messes - 2

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC)

This is the second in a series of “blogicles” on methods for resolving Wicked Problems. In the first installment, we noted the pioneering work of Rettel and Weber, who defined Wicked Problems mainly in the context of Urban Planning. Various contributors (e.g., Jeff Conklin) have extended their initial formulation in other directions. Here we focus on multi-system and multi-institution problems that Horn has been calling Social Messes. (For convenience, we use the terms Wicked Problems and Social Messes interchangeably.)

Tools For Resolving Wicked Problems: Mess Mapping and Resolution Mapping - 1

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By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC) 

This is the first of a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping and Resolution Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

In 1973, Rittel and Webber published an article defining "Wicked Problems." Especially in the context of Urban Planning, they wrote that Wicked Problems have these defining characteristics: