Random Musings:

Climate Change Scenario Thinking

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) is a major project initiated by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan in 2001 and completed in March, 2005. The project leveraged the contributions of 1360 experts from 95 countries, an 80-person independent board of review editors, and review comments from 850 experts and governments. The results are being published in more than a dozen reports listed on the MEA web site.

The results have also been summarized in a long PowerPoint presentation which can be downloaded from this page. Although over 6 megabytes, the larger of the three is well worth the effort. This presentation summarizes the project, findings, implications, and high level recommendations and should be required reading for anyone interested in the topic.

The project included a Scenarios Working Group whose contribution is summarized  beginning on slide 55 of the long presentation.  [Clicking on the thumbnail will produce a larger image]

 

Consistent with the view of scenarios advocated here, the MA scenarios are plausible future outcomes. The MEA scenarios will be more fully reported in one of several documents to be published this September.

Here are brief summaries of the four MEA scenarios:

CNN on The Impact of The Internet

CNN.com has a series of articles on the consequences of the Internet on modern life. Snippets:

The Newspaper of the Future

The New York Times has an article entitled "The Newspaper of the Future" which describes the Lawrence [Kansas] Journal-World and its web sites. Snippets:

Bluebeat - The Future Of Music?

Over on my Managing Rights Management blog, I've written about Media Rights Technologies' audio and video digital rights management offerings. Hank Risan and the gang are also the driving force behind BlueBeat.com.

Among their advisors is Gerd Leonhard who together with David Kusek wrote The Future Of Music Book, which has been the subject of blogicles here. Kusek and Leonhard believe that the future of music includes high-quality streaming music services that are probably subscription-based. BlueBeat.com is an embodiment of that vision.

A few weeks ago BlueBeat announced Version 2 of their website and client-side software. I've finally had the time to install it on one of my machines (1999 vintage Dell tower, Win2000 Pro, SP4, Media Player 9, Firefox 1.0.4, IE 6). The reinstall requires two boots, but apart from that, everything went smoothly.

Although I'm not one of the "golden ears", at 320 kbs the sound is, in my view, nothing short of stunning. Leonhard, Kusek, and MRT may well be right: BlueBeat-type services will be important to the Future of Music by striking a balance between very high quality audio and  protecting the rights of artists and distributors.
 

Scenario Planning in the UK

British Web-pub Spiked has an article on scenario planning in the UK by James Woudhuysen, professor of forecasting and innovation at De Montfort University, Leicester, and an Associate of the Future Foundation. Snippet:

Many of today's forecasts are recipes, in fact, for never taking a risk, and indeed for never leaving home again. In 2005, therefore, exposing forecasters' pretensions must the starting point for comprehensive assessments of the future - and for the genuine activism that should accompany such assessments.

Tower Records Back In The Groove

MSNBC has carried an article from the Sacramento Biz Journal describing Tower Record's new strategies. Snippets:

"This is an exciting time for us at Tower Records," Kevin Cassidy, executive vice president of retail, said in a statement about the Arizona store. "This new Tempe location continues our trend of opening and refurbishing stores in Tower's key markets."

Supremes To Rule

Here's one of many articles previewing the impending decision in Grokster  this from the Seattle Times. Snippets:

At the heart of the case is a question: Should Grokster and other companies that provide technology be held responsible for the actions of people who use the technology?

Music's Future is Video Says Sony BMG's Lack

USA Today has a story / interview with Sony BMG CEO Andrew Lack who says video is key. Snippets:

Tradeoffs in Greenhouse Gas Accounting

According to an article in (Maryville, TN) The Daily Times,  Alcoa has said that by 2017 the  amount of greenhouse gasses emitted in the production of aluminum will be balanced or offset by the amount of GHGs save by using lightweight aluminum in the transportation industry. Snippets:

Cordesman on Bioterrorism

Anthony Cordesman has been cited in this pages previously. He is the author of the article relating terrorism to the Buffyverse, the world of Buffy the Vampire Slayer and the rules that seem to govern in the universe inhabited by Buffy and the other characters created by Joss Whedon.

The World Peace Herald has published a Cordesman article on the reality of bioterrorism, Outside View: Crying wolf on bioterror? Snippets:

Moreover, the ease with which bioterrorism can be put into practice is growing.
   
The Internet provides a growing list of sites claiming to provide literature on the manufacture of biological agents and toxins in a wide variety of languages. The dissemination of biotechnology and of dual-use food processing and pharmaceutical equipment is steadily expanding the range of options for producing and weaponizing biological agents.
   
At the same time, biotechnology is advancing the range of different agents that can be used. Genetic engineering is moving from cutting edge science to commercial practice, immune and semi immune strains of major diseases are becoming more common, and new biowar approaches like attacking human immune systems are beginning to be practical. The worst cases for biological warfare are becoming more possible and their results can be truly grim.

 

Global Dimming

Another consequence of the gasses that cause warming is dimming. For one discussion of dimming and its consequences, see the discussion at Global Issues.org.

News On Demand

The News Hour ran a segment on News On Demand that points toward at least one future of media. A transcript and video clips including extended interviews can be found here.

How Big Oil Influenced Bush

The Guardian (UK)has a article that says, in part:

President's George Bush's decision not to sign the United States up to the Kyoto global warming treaty was partly a result of pressure from ExxonMobil, the world's most powerful oil company, and other industries, according to US State Department papers seen by the Guardian.

The documents, which emerged as Tony Blair visited the White House for discussions on climate change before next month's G8 meeting, reinforce widely-held suspicions of how close the company is to the administration and its role in helping to formulate US policy.

In briefing papers given before meetings to the US under-secretary of state, Paula Dobriansky, between 2001 and 2004, the administration is found thanking Exxon executives for the company's "active involvement" in helping to determine climate change policy, and also seeking its advice on what climate change policies the company might find acceptable.

Other papers suggest that Ms Dobriansky should sound out Exxon executives and other anti-Kyoto business groups on potential alternatives to Kyoto.

Until now Exxon has publicly maintained that it had no involvement in the US government's rejection of Kyoto. But the documents, obtained by Greenpeace under US freedom of information legislation, suggest this is not the case.

It's Not Just Eskimos in Bikinis

Check out Chip Ward's article on the EnviroHealth site on the EcoSystem consequences of climate disruption. Hmmmm. Like that phrase so much I'll incorporate it here as a replacement for climate change. Snippets:

The Terminator Terminates (sorta) GHGs

California is always the state to watch. Gov. Schwarzenegger has announced Green House Gas emission targets.

Academies call for greenhouse gas reductions

According to this AP article carried by CNN.com, The Science Academies of the G-8 countries issued a joint call for prompt action to reduce  greenhouse gases saying that further delays will prove very costly. "Lord May, president of Britain's Royal Society, said in releasing the statement that U.S. President George W. Bush's policy on climate change was "misguided" and ignored scientific evidence." Further snippets:

Music Radio Stations Hard Hit by Personal Digital Music Revolution

According to this press release, TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence says that "music radio will have to come to grips with the fact that technology is fracturing the overarching listener base while simultaneously personalizing consumer's interaction with pop culture." Nicely put. Additional Snippet:

The Future of Journalism, News, & Media

An earlier blogical here pointed out Robin Sloan and Matt Thompson's EPIC 2014 video on the future of news, the web, and journalism. Now the video has been updated. The EPIC 2015 video can be found here.

Avian Flu Blog

Here is a good blog resource on avian influenza.