The Chronicle of Philanthropy has an article on the International Storytelling Center in Jonesborough, TN, that characterizes stories about desired futures as a form of scenario planning. Many forms of scenario planning are based on projecting quantitative models into the future, each projection based on a different set of assumptions. Other forms of scenario planning string together event sequences, each event sequence constituting a different scenario. "This happens then that happens" is the basic form.
As developed by NCRI, Future Mapping [also see Art Hutchinson's 5 part series on scenario planning that begins here.] entails scenario as narrative. It's about storytelling with characters, plots, and key events. The characters might be companies, governments, markets, industries, and even well-known industry leaders as representatives of their companies. Bill Gates (Microsoft) and Larry Ellison (Oracle) come to mind as exemplars.
Stories are among the key scenario planning ingredients because the narrative form makes the scenario more understandable; everyone loves a great story. Stories also bind together the diverse actors, forces and events that comprise a scenario.
