Random Musings:

Backcasting

Recently, someone pointed out to me that Future Mapping / Scenario Mapping / Problem Resolution Mapping is a form of Backcasting, a set of strategic planning techniques that work backwards from some assumed future. In researching the use of "backcasting," I found this presentation from the Information Architecture 2007 Summit by Matthew Milan and Sam Ladner that provides a high level overview of how they use Backcasting in client engagements.

I'm a big fan and practitioner of "cards on the wall" meetings (or in Milan and Ladner's case, of Post-its on the wall). Their form of Backcasting and Scenario Mapping share some common assumptions, including: assuming divergent futures, working backwards, avoiding the forecasting frame, interactive discovery, and participant ownership of the results.

In over-viewing the history of Backcasting, Milan and Ladner indicate (slide 11) that the '90s saw the development of "big backcasting," whose liabilities (slide 12) include projects that are complex undertakings, resource intensive, and time consuming. Locating most Scenario Mapping projects in their "big backcasting" category, they have a point. The question is whether these are really liabilities.

Milan and Ladner also indicate that "big backcasting" projects are inaccessible to non-experts. If they mean that the content, results, and recommendations are inaccessible, I would quickly disagree. If they mean that actually facilitating / leading / doing a "big backcasting" project is difficult for non-experts, that often seems to be the case.

When clients have attempted to do Scenario Mapping projects without the involvement of consultants, with rare exceptions they find it difficult to do successfully. Consultants who do a lot of these projects have a wide range of experience to call upon. Internal facilitators usually do these kinds of projects less often. Although they may understand the process, they typically lack a wide range of Scenario Mapping project and facilitation experience. Consequently they often lack knowledge of the many variations and options available to facilitators.

There is another reason why Scenario Mapping is often difficult for non-experts. One of the requisite skills is the ability to assemble, prioritize, synthesize, and "chunk" a very large amount of information. Although this skill can be taught, it seems to require some basic facility. For example, certain Myers-Briggs types are often particularly adept, INTJs and many ENFPs, for example. Thus not everyone will be able to facilitate successfully a "big backcasting" project based on processes such as Scenario Mapping.

There's probably a set of clients for which the Milan-Ladner form of Backcasting is appropriate and cost effective. Although I have not been a participant in any of their projects, I believe that bottoms up, made-up-on-the-spot engagements provides an excellent brainstorming context, a forum for idea generation, and some good ideas that are actionable.

However, you get what you pay for. Scenario Mapping is more complex, more resource intensive and more time consuming. As noted, Scenario Mapping combines simulated hindsight or  Backcasting with a high prepared meeting. The work that goes into meeting preparation lays a foundation for more informed decision-making, developing a clear set of action priorities, and in many engagements, the association of responsibilities with action items.

Scenario Mapping participants routinely report that strategy setting aside, they leave with a much expanded personal knowledge base and views of their company, industry, markets, technologies, etc. Although time consuming and perhaps complex, this knowledge base becomes a valuable resource that clients typically draw on post meeting. In short, Scenario Mapping challenges and then enhances the mental models of workshop participants.

Here's a brief overview of Scenario Mapping.

The Future of Hawai'i

As some readers know, the Big Island of Hawai'i is at the top of my favorite places list.

Vision Foresight Strategy, a strategy consultancy based in Hawaii, has developed four scenarios for the future of that state that apparently will inform a 2-day conference this fall, the Hawai'i Futures Summit: Shaping Change.

While change on the level showcased in these scenarios happens because of many different trends and events in society, using one sector to frame each scenario allows us to consider a particular angle or ‘take’ on those factors that shape Hawai‘i’s futures. Despite this framing, factors from many areas, and from different levels, were taken into account when we created the scenarios. It is important to remember that these scenarios are not predictions, but rather exercises in exploring how and why Hawai‘i may change.

Each scenario stresses a different sector: Social, Economic, Environmental, and Political.

1. “Cultural Fragmentation” (Social): The myth of the melting pot is exposed.
2. “Towers of Tomorrow” (Economic) Population growth and urbanization reshape Hawai‘i.
3. “Rising Tides” (Environmental) Accelerated symptoms of climate change drive Hawai‘i.
4. “Launching Point” (Political) Hawai‘i as the forward base in the era of American Engagement.

Deloitte Technology Fast 500 CEO Survey: Talent Scarcity

Deloitte has published a survey of its Technology Fast 500 CEOs. A major problem is the scarcity of talent:

This year's big story is people. Baby boomers are beginning to retire in droves and there simply are not enough young people to replace them. This problem is particularly severe in developed countries, where decades of declining birth rates and shifting education patterns are producing chronic talent shortages in science, technology, engineering, and healthcare--fields at the very heart of the Deloitte Technology Fast 500.  This talent crisis--which is expected to last for decades--has the potential to make the dot-com talent crunch of the late 1990s look like a walk in the park.

CEOs in the Deloitte Technology Fast 500 remain confident about their companies' near-term growth prospects. As was the case last year, more than 80 percent say they are "very confident" or "extremely confident" about sustaining their high level of growth over the next 12 months. Their biggest challenge will be "finding, hiring quality employees" as the factor that most contributed to their companies' growth, and over half of the respondents plan to expand their workforce by more than 25 percent in the next year.

Scenario Planning for Indian Water Resources

In graduate school many years ago, I worked with a professor from Canada who believed that eventually the United States would consider annexing some or all of Canada in order to gain access to that country's water resources. Anything is possible.

According to this press release,

TERI-BCSD (Business Council for Sustainable Development) India in association with the Bombay Chamber of Commerce and Industry & The Leela Group of Palaces, Hotels and Resorts is organising a national workshop on Water Scenarios for Indian Businesses on 05 June 2007 (World Environment Day) at The Leela Kempinski, Mumbai.  Mr. SM Krishna, Honb’le Governor of Maharashtra will be the chief guest and will deliver a special address.

Water allocation problems include:

In the National Water Policy and several state policies water allocation to industry is at the bottom of the priority list.  Keeping this in view, sustained supply of freshwater becomes a critical issue for the survival of many industries especially water-intensive industries. The risk that industry faces today can be measured in terms of situations that have occurred where water stress, measured in terms of both availability and quality, has led to an increase in water costs, growth in business disruption and increased concern among the stakeholders about companies’ water-related performance.