Random Musings:

War Games On the Grandest Scale

The Register (UK) has an article on the US DoD's use of simulation to explore a wide range of scenarios.

Called the Sentient World Simulation (SWS), it will be a "synthetic mirror of the real world with automated continuous calibration with respect to current real-world information", according to a concept paper for the project.

"SWS provides an environment for testing Psychological Operations (PSYOP)," the paper reads, so that military leaders can "develop and test multiple courses of action to anticipate and shape behaviors of adversaries, neutrals, and partners".

SWS also replicates financial institutions, utilities, media outlets, and street corner shops. By applying theories of economics and human psychology, its developers believe they can predict how individuals and mobs will respond to various stressors.

The 10 Commandments of Crisis Management

OK, I like lists. Well, at least some lists. From South Africa comes the 10 Commandments of Crisis Management formulated by Evan Bloom, MD of the Crisis Communications Consultancy. Here are the first few:

1. You shall always have a crisis plan and keep it handy
Responsible management and practitioners of good corporate governance in South Africa ensure that their companies and organisations have a fully fledged PR crisis plan that deals with all eventualities. The plan must be based on a bespoke vulnerability and risk audit and scenario planning, and must integrate into an organisation's supply chain and business continuity plans.

2. You shall tell it all, tell it fast and tell it honestly

3. You shall stare the devil down and be brave

Amen.

The whole article is worth a read.

Don't Miss "Modern Major Googler"

Don't miss privacy watchdog and activist Lauren Weinstein's Gilbert and Sullivan parody, ""I Am the Very Model of a Modern Major Googler" with sing along lyrics.

Shift Happens - Mind Candy

People can post presentations on Slideshare.net to share with others. My 11 Fold Way to Venture Capital Funding presentation is posted there. Like other Web 2.0 services, Slideshare enables participants to indicate their favorite presentations. In looking through the list of "appleseed," who included the 11 Fold Way, I found this presentation: Shift Happens, which was done by Jeff Brenman of Apollo Ideas based on fascinating data and thoughts from Karl Fisch. Brenman's contribution is in design.

This very readable presentation is in part about discontinuities, tipping points, and future shock. For example, some of Fisch's points suggest that our century will be the century of Chindia [my term, not his]. A couple of bullets:

• The 25% of the people in China with the highest IQs is greater than the total population of North America
• In India, it's the top 28%
• Translation: They have more honor kids than we have kids.

NetNet: well worth a quick read - lot's of mind candy.

Paul Saffo on Forecasting

I don't do forecasts or predictions. Indeed, the strategy work I've done using Scenario Mapping / Future Mapping consciously avoids making forecasts, preferring instead to consider alternative and divergent outcomes and what would have to happen for each outcome to become reality.

Nevertheless, I've almost always liked Forecaster / Futurist Paul Saffo's work. His recent article on Six Rules for Effective Forcasting in the Harvard Business Review is no exception. The article is short, accessible, and to the point, so I won't try to summarize.

One idea and ensuing discussion concerns Rule 5: "Look Back Twice As Far As You Look Forward:"