By Robert E. Horn (Stanford University and MacroVU, Inc.) and Robert Weber (Strategy Kinetics, LLC)
This is another in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.
Sometimes several Events are chosen by a team defending one Endstate that are ignored in other scenarios. We call these Unique Events. For example, in a US and Global Climate Change workshop, a Unique Event might be that Cold Fusion Water Heaters are Commercially Available in 2013. In a U.S. Healthcare workshop, a Unique event might be that Total Healthcare Expenditures as a percentage of GDP are constant starting in 2010.
Since only one future depends on their occurrence, adopting a strategy based substantially on Unique events may entail higher overall risk since fewer actors care about these events. This is not to say that adopting such a strategy is necessarily a bad idea. In many business situations, for example, higher risk may bring with it higher rewards.
However, task forces, working groups, committees and others focused on resolving a given Wicked Problem may find that alternative strategies for resolving a given Social Mess are more attainable because they are based on a greater preponderance of Common Events rather than Unique Events.
