Earlier I noted Paddy Briggs' critique of Royal Dutch Shell's use of scenario planning. Writing in the Scotsman, George Kereven reports an interview with James Smith, the chief executive of Shell UK that focused on Shell's thinking regarding what I call the Wicked Problem of Global Climate Destruction. According to Kereven, there are two paths the world could take that Shall calls "Scramble" and "Blueprints".
The Scramble scenario is
...where self-interest predominates initially. Voters in the West and in the developing world are unwilling to make radical changes in lifestyle. Politicians concentrate on trying to optimise within their own national perspectives. As a result there is global competition for resources and little attention paid to cutting energy consumption. Naturally, this will lead to new international political tensions and greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb.
The Blueprints scenario is
...more benign. Governments accept that climate change and skyrocketing global energy demand require a co-ordinated solution on the Kyoto model. This starts slowly – think the recent Bali accords – but gathers momentum in time to avoid the worst prospects for global warming and energy wars. New energy technology also plays a big role.
