Random Musings:

Restaurants Prepare for Avian Flu

ABC News has an article reporting that the National Restaurant Association has been working on scenarios relating to H5N1 avian influenza. Snippets:

Avian Flu Blog

Here is a good blog resource on avian influenza.

Malaria, Climate Change, Scenario Planning in South Africa

A recent article in the Cape Times address the consequences of global climate change on malaria in South Africa. The SA government is employing scenario planning to consider alternative outcomes. Snippets:

The UK Influenza Plan

The UK government's influenza pandemic response plan can be found here [in PDF format].

Among the points made are that historically pandemics have come in waves:

Pandemic waves

In 1918/19 the A/H1N1 pandemic occurred in three distinct epidemic waves: early spring 1918, autumn 1918 and late winter 1919. The second wave was by far the largest and case-fatality rates were also higher than in the first wave12. The A/H3N2 pandemic caused an epidemic wave in the winter of 1968/69 but a more severe one in 1969/704. In contrast, the second wave of the 1957/58 pandemic in the UK was very small in comparison to the first3. Thus all planning should assume that more than one wave is possible (but not inevitable) and that a second wave could be worse than the first.

Canada's Influenza Pandemic Plan

In addition to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States, other national governments have developed action plans for responding to the threat posed by the next global influenza pandemic. For example, Canada's plan is overviewed here and presented here.

In addition to detection and treatment options, the Canadian plan also includes a section deal with mass fatalities [in PDF format]. Such contingency planning is both prudent and responsible. That the Canadian government has published the plan including provisions for worst case situations is both noteworthy and laudatory. Frank communications build trust between governments and citizens.

Research to Blend Avian, Human Flu

Despite what we know about the good Professor Murphy and his law, an article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports (in part) as follows. What's unclear is whether antiviral drugs cited in the article would be effective in preventing death should a killer virus somehow escape the BL-3 containment labs where the research is being conducted.

What health officials fear most about bird flu --- that it could trigger a pandemic by acquiring genes from a human flu virus and the ability to spread easily among people --- has not yet been known to happen naturally.

But scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta are playing out a scenario that could actually create the dreaded pandemic strain. The dangerous work is just getting under way in a high level biosecurity laboratory off Clifton Road.

The CDC's lab is thought to be the only one in the world where genes from a regular flu virus are being mixed with avian influenza, also known as H5N1.

"We're trying to understand, if this does occur in nature, what the properties of the viruses would be and how serious the pandemic might be," said Nancy Cox, chief of the CDC's influenza branch.

Laurie Garrett On Influenza And Bioweapons

Laurie Garrett is among my favorite science writers. She is, of course, the author of The Coming Plague and of Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health. Ms. Garrett has written an alarming piece published by the Council on Foreign Relations concerning the bioweapons potential of influenza virus. Scary Near-Miss Shows Bioterrorism Vulnerabilities describes the following:

Shortly before Christmas, some genetic data was--as a matter of routine--posted with GenBank, a mammoth, publicly accessible computer repository located at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. No special phone calls were made, no alarms sounded. But the GenBank posting looked like the genetic code for a new, manmade killer influenza that was infecting pigs in South Korea. Fingers seemed to point to Pyongyang.

Before you have a heart attack, let me assure you that, two months later, it looks like the nightmare of weaponized super-flu did not happen this time. But the scenario that played out is probably pretty close to what might unfold in a genuine bioterrorism incident, and it reveals critical weaknesses in our global security system--or lack thereof.

 

Economic Shock Waves From Avian Influenza Spreading Faster than the Disease

As reported in NewsTarget, consulting firm Bio Economic Research Associates ("bio-era") has published a study suggesting that the economic consequences of avian influenza are spreading faster than the disease itself.

“According to the quantitative measures we developed for assigning relative economic risk exposure to infectious disease outbreaks for countries in Asia, Hong Kong and Singapore are especially vulnerable to the initial economic shock waves that would ensue from a pandemic,” said James Newcomb, Managing Director and principal author of the bio-era report. “However, the secondary impacts on other countries, especially China, could have far-reaching impacts for economies around the world, including the US,” he added.

Pandemics and Scenario Planning

Last month we pointed to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) article on Avian Influenza, or "bird flu," and to World Health Organization (WHO) article concerning bird flu vaccines.

Scenario planning is the tool of choice in dealing with uncertainty. This week we'll focus on key Events, Endstates, and news relating to the possibility of a new Influenza Pandemic. According to the CDC, there  have been 3 pandemics in recent modern times:

During the 20th century, the emergence of new influenza A virus subtypes caused three pandemics, all of which spread around the world within 1 year of being detected.

Bush Order Allows Isolation of Those with Bird Flu

According to a Reuters article on Friday, President George W. Bush issued a directive allowing authorities to detain or quarenteen

President Bush issued a directive on Friday allowing authorities to detain or isolate any passenger suspected of having avian flu when arriving in the United States aboard an international flight.

USNews Avian Influenza Articles

USNews.com is running articles on the bird flu and possible pandemic scenarios. The main article is here.
 

Those counting on the availability of vaccine may want to reconsider:

HHS Awards $97 Million Contract to Develop Cell Culture-Based Influenza Vaccine

According to information published in many news sources, including this Reuters article:

U.S. health officials awarded $97 million to Sanofi Pasteur on Friday for the vaccine maker to buy new technology that could cut influenza vaccine production time in half.

The contract comes on the heels of a chaotic flu season that started with a vaccine shortage but later left health officials scrambling to redistribute unused supplies.

World Health Organization - Human "Bird Flu" Vaccine

Here is a World Health Organization (WHO) report on the development of a human "bird flu" vaccine published in February:

Availability of H5N1 prototype strains for influenza pandemic vaccine development

February 2005

The WHO Influenza Surveillance Network has characterized H5N1 influenza viruses isolated from humans and animals from several countries affected by the 2004/2005 H5N1 outbreak in Asia. WHO has also made recommendations on the antigenic and genetic characteristics of H5N1 viruses which are suitable for vaccine production.

Avian Influencza - Possibility of Pandemic

The Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published an article back in March reviewing the status of avian influenza and the prospects for a human pandemic. Here is a portion of that article:

Recent Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Asia
March 18 , 2005

Background

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) occurred among poultry in 8 countries in Asia (Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Lao, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam) during late 2003 and early 2004. At that time, more than 100 million birds either died from the disease or were culled.

From December 30, 2003 to March 17, 2004, 12 confirmed human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) were reported in Thailand and 23 in Vietnam, resulting in a total of 23 deaths.

By late February, however, the number of new human H5 cases being reported in Thailand and Vietnam slowed and then stopped. Within a month, countries in Asia were reporting that the avian influenza outbreak among poultry had been contained. No conclusive evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission was found.
Recent Developments

Beginning in late June 2004, new lethal outbreaks of H5N1 among poultry were reported by several countries in Asia: Cambodia, China , Indonesia , Malaysia (first-time reports), Thailand and Vietnam. There has not been a resurgence of avian influenza in South Korea and Japan, and the outbreaks are reported to be controlled in those countries. It is unknown to what extent H5N1 outbreaks in the other countries may be ongoing. For more information about outbreaks in poultry, visit the World Organization for Animal Health website.