Random Musings:

Paul Saffo on Forecasting

I don't do forecasts or predictions. Indeed, the strategy work I've done using Scenario Mapping / Future Mapping consciously avoids making forecasts, preferring instead to consider alternative and divergent outcomes and what would have to happen for each outcome to become reality.

Nevertheless, I've almost always liked Forecaster / Futurist Paul Saffo's work. His recent article on Six Rules for Effective Forcasting in the Harvard Business Review is no exception. The article is short, accessible, and to the point, so I won't try to summarize.

One idea and ensuing discussion concerns Rule 5: "Look Back Twice As Far As You Look Forward:"

Forbes' Networking Milestones

Forbes magazine has published an interesting list of networking milestones that is of interest not only for individual selections (and omissions), but the breadth of their vision regarding what constitutes networking. Among the more interesting choices are the AIDS epidemic (1959) and the network of trolleys in the Northeast and Northcentral US (1917).

Conspicuous absences include Tim Berners-Lee's development of HTTP and the rise of Peer-to-Peer networking.

Pre WW-II milestones include:

1917 U.S. trolley industry reaches a peak with 1,000 companies running 26,000 miles of track. Interurban trolleys (as opposed to railroads) are so extensive that a passenger could use them to get from Portland, Me. to Sheboygan, Wis.

1920 Associated Press (founded in 1846) sends news over 103,000 miles of wire in North America and 9,700 miles of ocean cable.

1923 Interpol created under the name International Criminal Police Commission, as a network of crime fighters from 14 countries.

1925 Photos of Calvin Coolidge's inauguration sent by telephotography (faxed, as we say now) from Washington to other cities.

1927 National Broadcasting Co.'s coverage of Rose Bowl marks first ever coast-to-coast network radio broadcast.

1933 Radio Corp. of America tests first television relay system; signal travels 86 miles from the Empire State Building to Camden, N.J.

1938 During the Depression communist sympathizers peak at 100,000 in U.S. Soviet intelligence agents in U.S. and Britain recruit spy networks that later infiltrate Manhattan Project and code-breaking operations.

1941 AT&T installs first coaxial cable for telecommunications.

The Heralds of Resouce Sharing

[tip 'o the hat to Dave Farber's IP list]
Google Video has a fascinating film on the origins of the Internet that should not be missed if you are all interested in the history of the Net. The film by Steven King includes interviews with Bob Kahn, JCR Licklider, BBNer Frank Heart, and several other Internet pioneers.

Lauren Weinstein has posted a Windows Media version of the film for direct download here.

Rod Van Meter has posted list of those seen in the film but not identified here.

Edward Vielmetti has linked the Wikipedia to Van Meter's page here.

 

The Reversability Principle - Take the SK Challenge

How should we think about world-changing technologies? This is the question posed and answered by Jamais Cascio in an article on WorldChanging.com. Generally speaking previous answers to this question tend to fall into two camps or philosophies. The first advocates the Precautionary Principle, namely, that "we should err on the side of caution when it comes to developments with uncertain or potentially negative repercussions, even when those developments have demonstrable benefits, too." The second advocates the Proactionary Principle, specifically, that "we should err on the side of action in those same circumstances, unless the potential for harm can be clearly demonstrated and is clearly worse than the benefits of the action."

Cascio's article defines and justifies the Reversibility Principle:

When considering the development or deployment of beneficial technologies with uncertain, but potentially significant, negative results, any decision should be made with a strong bias towards the ability to step back and reverse the decision should harmful outcomes become more likely. The determination of possible harmful results must be grounded in science but recognize the potential for people to use the technology in unintended ways, must include a consideration of benefits lost by choosing not to move forward with the technology, and must address the possibility of serious problems coming from the interaction of the new technology with existing systems and conditions. This consideration of reversibility should not cease upon the initial decision to go forward to hold back, but should be revisited as additional relevant information emerges.

All well and good. But some argue that some advanced technologies once deployed cannot be put back in the bottle, so to speak.

Are there any historical examples of technologies that were deployed and then recalled? Certain pharmaceuticals have been recalled once pernicious effects were demonstrated. Thalidomide was banned after it was shown that it cause grievous birth defects.

But the pharmaceutical industry, seeking to salvage something, is now working to show that it can be safely prescribed to non-pregnant women and to men to treat various conditions. According to the Wiki,

The FDA approved thalidomide in 1998, under a restricted access system, for the treatment of erythema nodosum leprosum associated with leprosy (Hansen's disease). It also was found to be effective for multiple myeloma, and is now standard first line therapy for this disease in combination with dexamethasone.

So is this an example of revsersability? Probably not.

Take the Strategy Kinetics Challenge:  Post a comment suggesting a historical example of the reversability principle. What do you get? Just thanks and 15 seconds of fame.

Organizational Culture Promotes Innovation

The Australian business magazine BRW has an article by Simon Lloyd stressing the importance of an organizational culture that encourages experiments and forgives mistakes. Snippets:

...Enlightened senior management promotes a culture in which employees are allowed to make mistakes in their pursuit of innovation. This attitude must be communicated most strongly from the chief executive.

The operational development manager at the communications provider Ericsson Australia, John Snooks, says his company has enthusiastically embraced this concept. "One should never be too critical or dogmatic. We set expectations with our key performance indicators but you certainly should not stifle ambition by rejecting some of the smaller [ideas], because sometimes that is the only way many of your people can contribute. How to get the message across, how to invite the input, how to get the ideas and the talent bubbling up are crucial."